Regulation

Facts, Analysis and Comment.

Airports Regulation

Overview

The current key issue is - Who pays for Heathrow's third runway? - assuming it is built:- See further below. Previous important regulatory issues have been

The history of these two issues is summarised here.

Another London Runway?

It is generally accepted that the South-East of the UK needs significantly more airport capacity. (Clement Attlee's Labour Government first proposed a third Heathrow runway in 1949!) Heathrow is now operating at full capacity and Gatwick is close to capacity. But the expansion of Heathrow is phenomenally complex and expensive. The immediate effects, environmental in particular, fall largely on the local population while the wider economic benefits accrue to the country as a whole. The Government nevertheless announced in October 2016 that it would bring forward legislation which would permit the planning process for a third Heathrow runway to begin around a year later.

But Who pays? Apart from concerns about noise and pollution, one of the big issues facing the promoters of the third runway is who pays for the runway and associated infrastructure, whose cost might exceed £20 billion. The catch is that this investment will not generate income until the runway is available to passengers, which will not happen for several years. Someone therefore has to invest a lot of money well in advance of getting any return. There are four possibilities:

The way in which the cost is shared is of vital importance to the airlines, and particularly to IAG/British Airways whose Chief Exec, Willie Walsh, opened hostilities in July 2015 by dismissing the third runway as 'a vanity project' whose costs would be 'outrageous'. He might be right about the cost - how can a runway + supporting infrastructure cost over £20bn? And maybe he genuinely doesn't want to see the runway built. He does, after all, have huge market power as IAG control over 50% of Heathrow's slots. So he won't want to see more competition at Heathrow which would reduce the value of his slots and force him to lower his fares. Also - less selfishly - he certainly won't want his passengers to have to pay for it in advance.

Notes

Heathrow's takeoff and landing slots are very valuable, selling for around £40m per pair in late 2015.

The airport handles c.480,000 plane movements (landings + takeoffs) a year, and its runways are 98% utilised.

Martin Stanley